Peter A. Wilderer, Raoul Weiler, Josef Bugl and Jean-Pierre Massué, European Academy of  Sciences and Arts

Issue: Implementing effective environmental risk-management systems can make a contribution to sustainable development in Europe. Risks affecting freshwater are of particular concern, and have to be tackled from the perspective of the complete hydrological basin. The historical, political, economic, educational and cultural diversity of large river basin areas, particularly those shared by a number of countries, makes developing and implementing effective management systems a particular challenge.

Relevance: The accession of the Eastern Danube countries to the European Union not only requires the harmonization of political, administrative and economic structures. Equally important is the development of the means to manage catastrophic events such as flooding, accidental spills and the resulting deterioration of water quality downstream. In this context, the problem is not only how to obtain the relevant data but also how to communicate information to local decision-makers effectively.

The term "risk" describes the possibility or danger of suffering substantial harm or loss, in this case for a whole ecosystem. Risk management encompasses measures both to control risk and limit the consequences of any harmful events that do occur. This therefore includes measures to avoid or at least minimize damage. The emphasis of risk management is therefore on averting any type of a crisis or disaster, once a disaster has occurred, however, effective crisis management needs to come into play to tackle the problems that arise.

In the case of fresh water, quantitative and qualitative aspects of risk and crisis management need to be distinguished. Also, the issue of scale should be taken into account. On the macro-scale, the focus of attention is the entire catchment area of a river and its tributaries. In contrast, the environmental situation at a single point in a river basin requires observations and actions on the micro-scale. A major environmental crisis may develop when the quantity of water flowing down-river exceeds a certain threshold, and flooding occurs. A political crisis may arise when a country upstream starts claiming a significant quantity of the river water for domestic purposes, to the extent that it causes water shortages in the countries further downstream. Unfortunately, conflicts resulting from this type of water claim appear to have become more frequent in recent years as the cases of disputes over the waters of the Euphrates/Tigris, the Rio Grande, or the Aral Sea demonstrate.

Water quality related problems may be caused by short- or long-term effects. Non-compliance with existing wastewater discharge regulations by municipalities and industries upstream may eventually cause a dramatic deterioration of the river water quality downstream, leading to severe water-supply problems, economic costs and even the outbreak of disease, for instance, during the summer. Catastrophic short-term effects may be caused by accidental spills of large amounts of hazardous chemicals from industrial plants, when a vessel carrying chemicals is damaged by a collision, or when the tailings dam holding back mining wastes is breached.

Risk-management plans addressing the kinds of issues listed above have been developed in recent years for many of the hydrographical regions of Europe. Most of them, however, are primarily focused on the very local geographical, economic and political conditions. Although bilateral cooperation is common, multilateral approaches are relatively rare. The current situation in Europe is further complicated by the fact that the existing risk-management plans differ greatly from each other, making information transfer across national borders very difficult, especially in emergency cases.

In order to harmonize risk management within the European Union and beyond, and to expand water-related risk management plans to cover whole river basins, in March 1987 the Committee of Ministers of the Council of Europe adopted resolution (87)-2, and established an intergovernmental Open Partial Agreement called EUR-OPA Major Hazards Agreement. Subsequently, the executive secretariat of EUR-OPA in cooperation with the European Space Agency (ESA) organized a number of conferences (e.g. the Strasbourg Forum of November 19-21, 2001, and the Montpellier Forum of December 12-14, 2001), to discuss the issue of risk management, and to develop appropriate strategies for the further development of environmental security in Europe. The background to this process was the framework of the EC Global Monitoring for the Environment and Security (GMES) Action Plan, which came into effect in 2001. Three hydrographical areas were chosen as model regions: the Meuse river basin, the Latin Arc (coastal zone reaching from Portugal to Italy), and the Danube river basin. Of these, the Danube appears to be the most challenging as this region encompasses 13 countries (Figure 1), some of which are EU member States, while others are Pre-Accession or Candidate Countries. Moreover, the economic situation of the various countries is very diverse, as is their recent political history.

In November 2001, the first conference of the European Academy of Sciences and Arts on "Water in Europe" was held in Budapest, Hungary (Wilderer et al., 2002). The aim of the two-day meeting was to acquire a better understanding of the specific inter-dependencies in the Danube basin between river water, ecological and environmental concerns, social issues, economic relationships and culture (Figure 2). This complex matrix was discussed in a holistic way, taking into account not only ecological, social and economic concerns, but also traditions, beliefs, sentiments and aesthetic ideas as well.

The Danube river basin was chosen as a model for various other hydrographical areas. It is characterized by common historical and cultural roots, by a common source of water, and a common basic history and culture. However, the countries of this region have experienced very different political and economic conditions over the past century. Currently, some of them are undergoing a process of convergence with the European Union. In many ways, the River Danube is literally the life line of this region. Man and nature, the economy and people’s well-being depend, among other factors, on this river, and on the quantity and quality of its waters.

The river serves as a transport route of considerable economic value. Moreover, it is a source of power, of drinking water, and of water for industry and irrigation, as well as a habitat for a diversity of flora and fauna, and a natural resource for recreation and enjoyment. The Danube and the adjacent countryside is home to millions of people who not only live there physically but also spiritually, and for whom "The beautiful blue Danube" is more than just the name of a waltz, it is a way of life.

Thus, the participants in the conference agreed that successful preservation and restoration of the beauty of the river and the landscape of its banks, from the wells in the Black Forest to the river’s mouth on the shores of the Black Sea, would be a major contribution to the development of the economy and environment of the region. A memorandum was agreed (Budapest Memorandum, 2002) reflecting the principles contained in the Danube River Protection Convention ratified in 1998, and the recent communication issued by the European Commission on environmental cooperation in the Danube - Black Sea region. The following recommendations were made:

To achieve sustainable development it is commonly assumed that the social structure of human society, the environment and the economy in the region must equally be held in balance. However, sustainable development depends not only on socio-economic and environmental measures but on "aesthetic measures" as well, given the effect they can have on people’s sense of wellbeing.

With respect to risk and crisis management in a multi-cultural region like the Danube river basin, aspects relating to the cultural heritage of the region need to be taken into account as well as physical, chemical and biological parameters. Only if they are, can countermeasures against the development of natural or man-made disasters be implemented effectively, as only if the cultural context is taken into account can the need to perform a given action at a given time and in a particular place be communicated effectively across political, economic and philosophical boundaries.

Straightforward water-related risk and crisis management requires the development and implementation of a sequence of actions to be accomplished by (1) scientists, (2) civil society and policy-makers and (3) engineers. Of paramount importance is a fast and smoothly working communication network between these three groups of players. With respect to the case of the Danube, communication must function across the governmental, administrative, educational and language barriers which have existed since 1918. Thus, in the case of the unfolding of a catastrophic event, the officer in charge of the local fire brigade needs to understand the signals raised by a monitoring and evaluation station, even when located far away outside of his own domain, for instance so that sand bags can be put in the right place at the right time to avoid or limit flood damage.

Figure 3 illustrates the risk and crisis management system to be developed. It consists of the following four steps:

• monitoring,
• evaluation,
• decision-making,
• action.

At the monitoring level information must be obtained - continuously - about

• the actual situation within the river basin (e.g., hydrodynamic flow characteristics, concentration of critical components in the water and in sediments, indicator values describing fauna and microbial population shifts and changes in reproductive ability),
• the geographical situation (e.g., river bed, size and capacity of retention areas, location of wastewater discharge sites, urban and agricultural land use),
• the present and future demand for water in the region, in terms of both quantity and quality.

Data acquisition is a critical issue in this context. In the event of an accident, analytical results must be available within minutes. Most of the standard methods of chemical and biological analysis are too time consuming to be practical under these circumstances. Novel high-speed real-time computing methods need to be developed and adapted to this specific task. Satellite-based monitoring methods coupled with numerical image analysis may be especially suited, as may methods which are based on the response of aquatic indicator organisms.

The data collected needs to be continuously evaluated in order to predict short and long term changes in flow and quality conditions downstream, and to predict undesirable developments. The results of this evaluation exercise must be available within the time frame in which decisions are to be made in order to initiate appropriate countermeasures. In the case of accidents the time available may only be a matter of minutes. Therefore, high-speed computers should be brought in service and high-speed mathematical/ numerical evaluation methods developed and implemented.

Most importantly, the results of data evaluation need to be translated into signals informing decision-makers about the current situation and alerting them to any problems as they arise. Obviously, a matrix containing a large amount of analytical data is inappropriate. The data must be condensed into the form of "indicator values". In the simplest case, such an indicator value could be a colour. Green would indicate that everything is fine, yellow would alert decision-makers to potential problems and red would call for immediate action.

When actions are due, decision-makers at the level of the river basin as a whole, the national level and/or the very local level need further advice. To facilitate the decision-making process a set of catastrophe scenarios need to be identified beforehand. Numerical simulation conducted on the basis of the current data could help in the choice of countermeasures, this being the approach which provides the greatest chance of avoiding or limiting damage or loss. But again, the results of computer simulation need to be available almost instantaneously, and the results have to be comprehensible in Germany as well as in Bulgaria or in any other country of the Danube region. The challenge involved in developing such a risk and crisis management system is considerable but the task deserves the effort it requires.

• Risks affecting fresh water are increasing as a result of climate change and economic growth, and these risks affect the Danube region in particular. In order to bolster economic and environmental security in Europe in the context of progress towards European integration, a modern risk and crisis management system needs to be developed and implemented.
• Such a system would not only be applicable to European river basins but also to other hydrographical regions around the world.
• The development of such a system requires the integration of various scientific disciplines and close cooperation with government and business as well as civil society. The creation of a task force covering expertise in relation areas of science and civil society groups is a possible approach to this challenge.

flooding, accidental spills, indicator values, modelling and simulation, cross-border communication

Peter A. Wilderer, European Academy of Sciences and Arts

Tel.: +49 89 28 91 37 00, fax: +49 89 28 91 37 18, e-mail: wilderer@bv.tum.de

Dimitris Kyriakou, IPTS

Tel.: +34 95 448 82 98, fax: +34 95 448 83 39, e-mail: dimitris.kyriakou@jrc.es