EC JRC Banner
European Commission > JRC > IPTS

publications > reports

Global Climate Policy Scenarios for 2030 and beyond – Analysis of Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduction Pathway Scenarios with the POLES and GEM-E3 models

  • Authors: Peter Russ, Tobias Wiesenthal, Denise van Regemorter, Juan Carlos Ciscar
  • EUR Number: 23032 EN
  • Publication date: 12/2007


The European Union is committed to limiting the global temperature increase to 2 degrees Celsius by the year 2100. In 2007, the European Commission published a Communication on 'Limiting Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius: the way ahead for 2020 and beyond', which explores ways for meeting this target. The Communication drew on scenarios developed by the Joint Research Centre IPTS. These scenarios and the underlying model toolbox are presented in this report.
The report shows that a baseline development would lead to a continuous rise in global greenhouse gas emissions. If dedicated climate change policies and energy efficiency standards were introduced, global greenhouse gas emissions from energy use and industrial processes could be reduced to reach a level of 25% below that of 1990 by 2050.
The 'GHG reduction scenario' takes a novel – yet realistic – approach by simulating an imperfect carbon market across sectors and regions. Reaching the 2 degree target pathway is feasible under these assumptions. One key element for achieving it would be energy savings and changes in the power sector. Furthermore, the use of 'flexible mechanisms' is found to be central for limiting the cost of an ambitious climate change policy.

Documents available

Document Format Size Links
Executive Summary application/pdf 43.9 KB Download a copy
Publication application/pdf 2.14 MB Download a copy

Get Adobe Acrobat Reader

You will need the Adobe Acrobat reader to view any reports you download. Click on the icon below to obtain the reader (free of charge) if it is not already installed on your computer.

Download Adobe Acrobat Reader