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Climate change impacts in Europe. Final report of the PESETA research project

  • Authors: Ciscar, J.C., Iglesias, A., Feyen, L., Goodess, C.M., Szab√≥, L., Christensen, O.B., Nicholls, R., Amelung, B., Watkiss, P., Bosello, F., Dankers, R., Garrote, L., Hunt, A., Horrocks, L., Moneo, M., Moreno, A., Pye, S., Quiroga, S., van Regemorter, D., Richards, J., Roson, R., Soria, A.
  • EUR Number: 24093 EN
  • Publication date: 11/2009

Abstract

The PESETA research project integrates a set of high-resolution climate change projections and physical models into an economic modelling framework to quantify the impacts of climate change on vulnerable aspects of Europe. Four market impact categories are considered (agriculture, river floods, coastal systems, and tourism) and one non-market category (human health).
Considering the market impacts, without public adaptation and if the climate of the 2080s occurred today, the EU annual welfare loss would be in the range of 0.2% to 1%, depending on the climate scenario. However, there is large variation across different climate futures, EU regions and impact categories. Scenarios with warmer temperatures and higher sea level rise result in more severe economic damage for the EU. Southern Europe, the British Isles and Central Europe North appear to be the most sensitive regions to climate change. Northern Europe is the only region with net economic benefits, mainly driven by the positive effects in agriculture. Concerning the contribution to the overall effects, coastal systems, agriculture and river flooding are the most important ones.

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