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Prospects for Agricultural Markets and Income in the EU. Background information on the baseline construction process and uncertainty analysis

  • Authors: iMAP modelling team
    (Document compiled by Zebedee Nii-Naate)
  • EUR Number: 25148 EN
  • Publication date: 12/2011

Abstract

This report brings into the public domain information on the process whereby the European Commission currently derives its agricultural outlook, consisting of baseline projections and market-related analysis of EU agricultural commodities (cereals, oilseeds, biofuels, sugar, meat, and milk and dairy products). The baseline is conditional upon on specific assumptions about agricultural and trade policies and the macroeconomic environment. The process relies heavily on the use of three complementary agro-economic simulation models, which are used sequentially to produce harmonised projections up to 2020 at different levels spatial disaggregation globally and within the EU. However, the modelling approach is also greatly enriched by expert knowledge from a wide range of specialisms and organisations (policy makers, modellers and market experts from the EU, third countries, international organisations and stakeholders). Opportunities to develop the baseline methodology are also discussed.

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